Exploring to find new Opportunity Hypotheses (OH) creates the 'raw material' for the OD process. Exploring involves coming up with initial OHs that are based on something discovered. Creating an OH does not involve detailed analysis or in depth research. It only involves finding something of interest, as indicated by one or more pieces of evidence or 'indicators'. OH's shuld be 'easy' to find and an experienced scout is normally able to create three to six OH's ready for review in 10 hours of exploring.
Some of the first principles of creating OHs are:
Do
- Care
- Be curious
- Contact people
- Empathize
- Look for patterns
- Go where the evidence leads
- Go between levels – abstract to concrete
- Be willing to speculate
Don’t
- Get hemmed in
- Give in to preconceived notions
- Dwell in the details
- Get locked in at a specific level
- Focus on the technology
- Limit yourself to what you thought the domain was at the beginning of the process
Some useful techniques that you can try are:
- Find ‘indicators’ and delay using ‘evaluators’. Conciously avoid the questions 'Is this a good opportunity' or 'Would we ever do this' these filters are part of the process itself.
- Speculate and go with initial notions. Try usingLook At’s, What About’s, What If’s, etc. to create unforseen possibilities that you wouldn't normally consider
- UseGenerators & Scenarios to churn out OHs. Go with a common theme or create a picture of the future to indicate what may happen
- Go where the evidence leads. In evidence-based search, you don't try to analyze, you observe and note. See where others are pointing you.
- Talk to people. Use explicit and tacit encounters with people in the ecosystem to find workarounds and accomodation. Look at what’s not being said or being done
- Look in the ‘gaps’ and at the boundaries. Often the most interesting opportunities come when you are exploring the very edges of the domain.
- Go in and out. Generalize and abstract and generalize and then specialize and get concrete. Create OH's at both levels.